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    Politics & Postcodes

    Politics & Postcodes

    Politics has always been dynamic. MP’s resign, by-elections take place and General Elections wipe the slate clean.

    But I can’t remember anything like the turmoil we have experienced in the last few months – or about to experience over the next 6 weeks!

    Why does this matter to a company who specialises in all things Postcode? It’s a fair question.

    The answer is that we have key Government & Public Relations clients who rely on our data to determine which political party and MP individual Postcodes belong to. As new Postcodes are continually introduced or removed by Royal Mail, the data is updated on a 3-month cycle to ensure all Postcode and Parliamentary information is as up to date as possible.

    But the changes to the political landscape in the last few months is unprecedented when a General Election hasn’t occurred.

    We ordinarily only observe 2 or 3 by-elections in a 3-month period resulting in a new MP representing that seat in the House of Commons. But the 3 months between 1st July and 30th September 2019 brought changes to 36 Westminster Parliamentary Constituencies.

    Defections, Resignations and Withdrawn Whips

    Much happened between 1st July and 30th September. After the failure of Parliament to agree the EU Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May’s Government, the Conservative leadership race resulted in the appointment of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister with a new cabinet.

    Thus started one of the most chaotic periods of UK politics I can remember.

    Whilst only one Parliamentary Constituency acquired a new Member of Parliament during this period (Jane Dodds of the Liberal Democrats won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election on 1st August 2019), a further 35 constituencies retained their MP but with a different political party.

    As a result, over 3.7 million people (over 6% of the total population) found that the party that won in their constituency at the 2017 General Election no longer held the seat.

    A full list of MP changes we implemented in our data during this period can be read here but in summary the extent of the changes was as follows:

    Changes in Parliamentary Seats

     Fig 1: Change in Westminster Parliamentary Constituency seats 1st July to 30th September 2019

    The reasons were many:
    • The Government withdrew the whip from 21 Conservative MP’s for rebelling and voting to block a no-deal Brexit,
    • Change UK officially changed their name to ‘The Independent Group for Change’,
    • Dr Phillip Lee and Sam Gyimah defected from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats,
    • Independent MP’s joined the Liberal Democrats; and
    • Two Labour MP’s resigned

    And just as the dust settles following this period of Parliamentary musical chairs, a General Election is scheduled for Thursday 12th December.

     Predicting The 2019 General Election

    Whenever a General Election occurs, we try to anticipate the results in order to assess the extent of changes that may affect our products and services.

    However, this Election is a little different for a few reasons:

    • This is the first Election that Boris Johnson will contend as Prime Minister.
    • It is an election that will be fought not just on domestic policies – Brexit is front and centre of all the party’s manifesto’s.
    • The Brexit issue adds another complication: it is unlikely to be straight contest between all parties. Already back room deals are being struck to maximise both Pro- and Anti- Brexit parties’ chances of winning each seat.
    • And where multiple parties stand in a constituency, a wealth of tactical voting information has been made available to help voters determine which party to vote for to get the Brexit result they want.

    In an attempt to understand how the political landscape may change after the 2019 General Election, we turned to the clever chaps at Electoral Calculus who have used quantitative analysis and modelling to predict the outcome of the 2019 General Election.

    At the time of writing (19th November 2019), the prediction is a Conservative majority of 72 with the key net gains and losses as follows:

    Party

    Net Gain/ Loss

    CON

    +43

    LAB

    -61

    LIB

    +7

    SNP

    +11

    Fig 2: Key predicted gains and losses at the 2019 General Election. Data from Electoral Calculus, with permission.

    We have compared this prediction to the results of the 2017 Election in the maps below:

    2017 General Election Result Map

    Fig 1: Results of the 2017 General Election.

     

    2019 Predicted General Election Result Map

    Fig 2: Predicted Results of the 2019 General Election. Data from Electoral Calculus, with permission

    Geographically, the prediction is for strengthening of the SNP in Scotland at the expense of the Conservatives but then similar advances of the Conservatives in England at the expense of Northern Labour seats.

    Of course, these predictions will shift continually as new polls are taken, electoral deals are struck between parties and tactical voting information develops.

    With accurate predictions proving difficult - to say the least - the result of the 2019 General Election could easily be anything from a hung parliament to a Conservative landslide!

    Update Timescales

    We provide a number of products and services which will be impacted upon by the 2019 General Election on the 12th December.

    - Our base Postcode to Westminster Parliamentary Constituency database
    - The automated Postcode to Westminster Constituency matching Excel spread sheet.
    - Bespoke matching services where we match customer Postcode lists to a wide range of related data including Westminster Parliamentary Constituency information.

    With the results of the General Election on the 13th December, we anticipate approximately 1 weeks work to capture the results of the election and implement them into our various products.

    We are therefore targeting release of our update date by Friday 20th December 2019. Obviously, this is very close to Christmas so the worst case scenario would be that the data would be available from Monday 6th January 2020.

    If you have any queries about the information in this article or about our products and services, please let us know.

    Westminster Parliamentary Changes Q3 2019

    Westminster Parliamentary Changes Q3 2019

    The following information relates to changes in our Postcode to Parliamentary Constituency data products for the period 1st July 2019 to 30th September 2019.

    Products affected are the Postcode to Parliamentary Constituency lookup database and the Postcode to Parliamentary Constituency Automated Matching Excel Spread Sheet.

    Current Status

    Following the changes between 1st July and 20th September, the following table confirms the split of Parliamentary seats by political party.

    Party

    Seats

    Conservative

    288

    Labour

    245

    Independent

    35

    Scottish National Party

    35

    Liberal Democrat

    19

    Democratic Unionist Party

    10

    Sinn Féin

    7

    The Independent Group for Change

    5

    Plaid Cymru

    4

    Green Party

    1

    Speaker

    1

    Total number of seats

    650

    Working Government Majority

    0

     

    Current Seats by Political Party

    Summary Of Changes

    The following table illustrates the changes to each party during this period.

    Party

    Change

    Conservative

    -25

    Labour

    -2

    Liberal Democrat

    7

    Independent

    20

    The Independent Group for Change

    5

    Change UK

    -5

     

    Summary of Party Seat Changes

     

    Change of MP

    Constituency:        Brecon and Radnorshire

    New MP:                  Jane Dodds (Liberal Democrat)

    Previous MP:            Chris Davies (Conservative)

     

    Change of Party

    Constituency:        Aberconwy

    MP:                           Guto Bebb

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Beaconsfield

    MP:                           Mr Dominic Grieve

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Bracknell

    MP:                           Dr Phillip Lee

    New Party:               Liberal Democrat

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Broxtowe

    MP:                           Anna Soubry

    New Party:               The Independent Group for Change

    Previous Party:         Change UK

     

    Constituency:        Dover

    MP:                           Charlie Elphicke

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        East Surrey

    MP:                           Mr Sam Gyimah

    New Party:               Liberal Democrat

    Previous Party:         Conservative

      

    Constituency:        Eddisbury

    MP:                           Antoinette Sandbach

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Enfield North

    MP:                           Joan Ryan

    New Party:               The Independent Group for Change

    Previous Party:         Change UK

     

    Constituency:        Guildford

    MP:                           Anne Milton

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Hastings and Rye

    MP:                           Amber Rudd

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Ilford South

    MP:                           Mike Gapes

    New Party:               The Independent Group for Change

    Previous Party:         Change UK

     

    Constituency:        Jarrow

    MP:                           Stephen Hepburn

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Labour

     

    Constituency:        Liverpool, Riverside

    MP:                           Dame Louise Ellman

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Labour (Co-op)

     

    Constituency:        Liverpool, Wavertree

    MP:                           Luciana Berger

    New Party:               Liberal Democrat

    Previous Party:         Independent

     

    Constituency:        Mid Sussex

    MP:                           Sir Nicholas Soames

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Newbury

    MP:                           Richard Benyon

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        North East Bedfordshire

    MP:                           Alistair Burt

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Nottingham East

    MP:                           Mr Chris Leslie

    New Party:               The Independent Group for Change

    Previous Party:         Change UK

     

    Constituency:        Penistone and Stocksbridge

    MP:                           Angela Smith

    New Party:               Liberal Democrat

    Previous Party:         Independent

     

    Constituency:        Penrith and The Border

    MP:                           Rory Stewart

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Putney

    MP:                           Justine Greening

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Romsey and Southampton North

    MP:                           Caroline Nokes

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative 

     

    Constituency:        Runnymede and Weybridge

    MP:                           Mr Philip Hammond

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Rushcliffe

    MP:                           Mr Kenneth Clarke

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        South Cambridgeshire

    MP:                           Heidi Allen

    New Party:               Liberal Democrat

    Previous Party:         Independent

     

    Constituency:        South West Hertfordshire

    MP:                           Mr David Gauke

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Stockport

    MP:                           Ann Coffey

    New Party:               The Independent Group for Change

    Previous Party:         Change UK

     

    Constituency:        Stourbridge

    MP:                           Margot James

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Totnes

    MP:                           Dr Sarah Wollaston

    New Party:               Liberal Democrat

    Previous Party:         Independent

     

    Constituency:        Tunbridge Wells

    MP:                           Greg Clark

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Wantage

    MP:                           Mr Edward Vaizey

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Watford

    MP:                           Richard Harrington

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        West Dorset

    MP:                           Sir Oliver Letwin

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Wimbledon

    MP:                           Stephen Hammond

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

     

    Constituency:        Winchester

    MP:                           Steve Brine

    New Party:               Independent

    Previous Party:         Conservative

    Essential Accessories for Wall Maps

    Essential Accessories for Wall Maps

    We often get asked by customers if we sell accessories for their map such as marker pens or fixings to hang maps on their walls.

    The truth is that we don't because we can't compete with the prices of these items on Amazons so rather than sell them at inflated prices, here are our picks of Amazon's map accessories which work will with our range of maps.

    Wall Fixings

    One of the essential accessories you need for a wall map, are fixings with which to hang the map on the wall! We have tried various solutions for a laminated (not framed) map:

    • Drawing pins obviously damage the map and the wall
    • Sellotape is not reliable and tends to pull paint off the wall
    • Blu tack is a better option but again isn't that reliable.

    The best solution we have found are 3M hanging strips. These strips fix to the wall and the back of your map (or map frame) and fix your map to the wall with velcro! They are easy to use, don't damage the wall or your map and the best solution we have found.

     

    Marker Pens

    The first thing to clarify with regard to marker pens is that assuming you want to be able to draw on your map and then remove the pen at some point there are two conditions.

    1. Your map must be laminated or plastic coated. If you draw on a paper map with any kind of marker pen then it will be permanent.
    2. The marker pens must be dry wipe/ water based marker pens. If you use permanent markers your annotation on the map will be just that - permanent!

    So without further ado, here are some of our recommendations for marker pens you can use with our range of plastic coated wall maps. Just remember that if you are drawing territory or franchise boundaries on your map, the thicker the pen the better!

    Erasers & Wipes

    In keeping with Murphy's Law, it is certain that as soon as you have drawn your territories, franchise areas or store locations on a map, someone will walk into the office and announce a change that immediately messes up your beautiful artwork!

    So now you have to clean your boundaries boundaries off the map and redraw them. And the question is, what is the best product to quickly and easily remove pen from the map?

    We have found that whiteboard erasers tend to smudge the pen and leave residue. So the best thing we have found are either whiteboard wet wipes or a simple whiteboard solution cleaner and a cloth.

    Again, for convenience, our top picks our shown below for reference.

     

    Map Stickers

    Once your Postcode map is on the wall, one of the first things you want to do is plot the locations of stores, key customers, franchisee locations or staff. 

    Common methods are map pins or magnets but these do have drawbacks. Map pins require the map to have a cork backing but still damage the map itself and puncture the protective plastic coating.

    Magnets are an option but require the map to be mounted with a magnetic or metal backing.Even then if the magnets aren't strong enough they can have a tendency to slide or fall off. So, as fans of keeping things simple, we like stickers! And the beauty of these is that they are cheap and also removable as long as they are used on a plastic coated/ encapsulated map. Here are our top picks from Amazon:

     

    Q2 Postcode Updates

    Q2 Postcode Updates

     

    The latest updates to our Postcode data lookup and database products are now available and we are offering a 25% discount to all databases for a limited period - see below for details..

    Parliamentary Constituency Data & The 2017 General Election

    The latest Parliamentary Constituency data includes all the latest Postcode changes and the status of MP's and Parties following the General Election on 8th June 2017.

    These changes are included within the following data products:

    The Postcode to Parliamentary Constituency Lookup Data >

    The Postcode to Parliamentary Constituency Automated Matching Excel Spread Sheet >


     Postcode Lookup Data & Excel Apps

    View the range of Postcode lookup databases which have been affected by the latest Postcode changes plus our Royal Mail PAF databases here >

    We also have a range of Excel spreadsheets designed to automatically tag your Postcodes with associated data. You can find out more about these latest Excel Apps by clicking here >


    Postcode Data Discount Code

    25% Off Postcode Data Until 31/07/2017

    For the month of July, you can get 25% off any of our data products by using the code AB11 when checking out.


    How Do Updates Affect Postcode Products?

    Changes to Postcodes have a direct impact on a whole range of Postcode based products which must be updated to reflect the ever-changing Postcode landscape. Here are some examples of how Postcode changes may affect you:

    If you use Postcodes for Business Analysis

    Look up tables which relate Postcodes to other information such as Parliamentary Constituencies, Local Authority Information, Grid References must all be updated to ensure the analysis of Postcode related records and information is accurate and up to date.

    In addition to updating the Postcodes themselves, we also take the opportunity to update all the related information such as MP names, Ward names and so on to ensure these references are also current.

    If you use Postcodes for Address Management

    Sometimes existing Postcodes do change for households and people move in to new build homes with brand new addresses and Postcodes. Companies providing services or delivering products to these homes need to ensure their systems are up to date to capture and update these new addresses.

    Our Royal Mail PAF databases are therefore all updated to reflect the latest Postcode changes and help companies keep their customer data accurate and up to date.

    If you use Postcodes for mapping Sales Territories or Franchise Areas

    Changes to the Postcode system can also impact the Postcode boundaries themselves which are widely used in GIS and mapping software such as MapInfo, ESRI and Intergraph products for a range of business tasks including mapping sales territories and planning franchise areas.

    New Postcodes can change the Postcode structure geographically and we meticulously review these changes to ensure all our digital Postcode boundary files reflect these latest changes.

    The next Postcode update is expected to take place in September 2017 but if you have any questions on the latest Postcode changes and how they may affect you please contact us.